Clark Schultz
Tesla and Waymo may both win the robotaxi race
Seeking Alpha
Industry experts weigh in on why both Tesla and Waymo could find success in the robotaxi space through different approaches.
Feature on Tesla + Waymo
The question of whether Tesla (TSLA) or Waymo (WAYMO) has a robotaxi edge continues to be debated by the investment community.
LightSource AI CEO Spencer Penn told Seeking Alpha that the honest answer is Waymo (WAYMO) is winning at the moment. "They're doing about 500,000 paid rides a week across 10 U.S. cities with a 3,000-vehicle fleet, all fully driverless, with 170+ million rider-only miles and a published safety record showing roughly 90% fewer serious-injury crashes than human drivers in their operating cities," updated Penn. Meanwhile, he noted that Tesla (TSLA) has roughly 240 robotaxis across Austin, the Bay Area, and now Dallas and Houston, and most rides still have a safety monitor in the car. Penn called that current situation a pilot, not a business yet. However, he thinks Tesla (TSLA) has things working in its favor that don't get enough attention.
Penn pointed out that Tesla (TSLA) designed the Cybercab to comply with existing FMVSS standards on its own, which gives it a structural runway nobody else has. He also highlighted that the robotaxi cost structure is in a different category, with Tesla (TSLA) targeting a sub-$30K Cybercab. "That's not a small gap; it's a different business model. If the unboxed manufacturing process actually delivers the cycle times Tesla is targeting, the unit economics aren't comparable," he added.
Finally, Penn said Tesla's (TSLA) robotaxi business and consumer car business are conjoined in a way Waymo's (WAYMO) isn't. Tesla's supervised FSD fleet has now driven about 8.5B miles and is adding roughly a billion miles a month, which is a data flywheel Waymo (WAYMO) structurally cannot replicate because Waymo (WAYMO) doesn't sell cars to consumers. "If Tesla solves unsupervised FSD, every Tesla in someone's driveway becomes part of the fleet. That's a fundamentally larger market than dedicated robotaxis," summed up Penn.
The long-term forecast from Penn is that Waymo (WAYMO) will keep leading the premium urban robotaxi segment where trust and reliability matter most, while Tesla (TSLA), if the autonomy works, has a much larger addressable market because the same software powers their robotaxi network and millions of personal vehicles. Looking ahead, he called it different companies, different bets.
Originally published by Seeking Alpha, May 5, 2026.
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